India's weather office defines average, or normal, rainfall as between 96 percent and 104 percent of a 50-year average of 89 cms for the entire four-month season beginning June. Since 2012, IMD is also using the dynamical global climate forecasting system (CFS) model developed under the Monsoon Mission to generate forecasts. Operational forecasts for the southwest monsoon season rainfall are issued in two stages.
IMD will update its forecast in early June with numbers on month and region-wise distribution of the monsoon.
The monsoon will be 97 per cent of long period average, which is normal for the season, IMD Director General K G Ramesh told a press conference.
"India will receive normal monsoon this year". A figure between 96 to 104 percent is considered normal monsoon.
However, the monsoon can be affected by the El Niño conditions.
The moderate La Nina conditions developed in the equatorial Pacific during last year started weakening in the early part of this year and now have turned to weak La Nina conditions. The warming results in below-par rainfall across the subcontinent and South Asia. Although rains would witness a drop in July and August that will not much affect the farmers.
According to a private weather forecasting agency the southwest monsoon is likely to be normal this year.The India Meteorological Department, IMD will issue its first official forecast for 2018 southwest monsoon rains in New Delhi today.
About half of India's farm output comes from summer-sown kharif crops, such as rice, sugar, cotton, coarse cereals, which are dependent on South-west monsoon.
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